HYdrology, PErmafrost and Resilience in Eastern Russian Arctic and Subarctic 

The Arctic and sub-Arctic are rapidly changing due to global warming – rainfall, temperature and river flow are increasing, snow cover is changing, glaciers are melting, and permafrost is thawing. Environmental changes happening in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), in eastern Siberia, Russia, are the main focus of this project. 

Many of the Arctic and sub-Arctic communities in Yakutia – both in cities and smaller rural communities – should be ready to meet the challenges caused by climate change. Local societies are affected by increasing flood risk, longer periods of isolation without road access due to weakening ice-road infrastructure, and loss of agricultural land as a result of ground subsidence when the permafrost thaws. There is a great need to develop new knowledge and forecasting tools to understand and manage the impact of climate change on the environment and society.

HYPE-ERAS aims to combine environmental and social knowledge to strengthen capacity for adaptation and management of the climate change effects on society and nature – so-called resilience – in Arctic and subarctic areas of Yakutia.

This will be done by improving knowledge about the relationship between changes in river streamflow, ice cover and permafrost, and the corresponding social challenges (floods, ice roads sustainability, loss of agricultural land), and how these affect local and regional economy, agriculture, traditional lifestyle and cultural landscape. Another aim is to increase resilience to climate change by developing improved tools for forecasting and future scenarios. A new forecast system for floods and ice conditions will be developed that incorporates field observations in Eastern Siberia, new satellite measurements and existing climate services.

The project focuses on the major rivers in Yakutia in Eastern Siberia, and is a collaboration between natural and social science researchers in Sweden, Russia and Japan as well as stakeholders at federal, republic, and local levels in Yakutia. The researchers in the project specialize in hydrological modelling and forecasts, permafrost hydrology, landscape changes in permafrost areas and their impact on local and regional economy, agriculture, traditional lifestyle and cultural landscape.