Hydrological modelling and forecasting – integration of in-situ and satellite based data

Scientific questions:

  • How can we improve forecasting of Flooding and Ice breakup in Yakutian rivers by assimilation of observed water levels and ice conditions?
  • How can we combine information from satellite and ground based observations to improve the hydrological models?
  • How do people perceive changes in hydrology compared to hydrological observation data? (Hydrology by numbers and by Human Perception)
  • What are the core benefits and weaknesses of the forecasting and what can be improved?

Hydrological models conceptualize our understanding of the relationships of climate, water, landscape and land use and is frequently used to make predictions of surface and underground water systems for practical or research purposes. Several hydrological models have been used more or less successfully to simulate river flow in the large Arctic rivers, especially the Lena river (e.g. Lebedeva et al, Semenova et al, Pomeroy et al ), but none of these have been tested as a forecasting tool in Yakutia. We will further develop the existing Arctic-HYPE hydrological model (Andersson et al, 2015;Gelfan et al 2018;Macdonald et al; 2018), which has been setup by SMHI for the large pan-arctic drainage basin of the Arctic Ocean as a contribution to the WMO Arctic-HYCOS project. It is currently producing on a daily basis, river discharge forecasts for the next 10 days, available from http://hypeweb.smhi.se. However, real-time observations or historical data are not yet assimilated to generate improved historical re-analysis or initial states for the forecasts. An improved forecast system will be setup for the HYPE-ERAS project, where river discharge, water level and ice observations from gauging stations and from satellite based altimetry will be assimilated in the Arctic-HYPE model. The main goal is to make improved 10 day forecasts of river water level and ice break up dates. We will also explore the potential to make seasonal forecasts of river ice conditions, and improved river ice climate impact indicators. Improved understanding of key permafrost hydrological processes will be incorporated based on the results of the hydrological change research tasks.